How Will Macroeconomic Policies Evolve in Response to US-China Trade Relations in 2025?

US fiscal expansion to support economic resilience but risks fiscal sustainability

The United States' aggressive fiscal expansion has proven crucial for maintaining economic resilience during recent turbulence, yet mounting evidence suggests this approach threatens long-term fiscal sustainability. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office's 2023 fiscal health report, the federal government's publicly held debt continues to grow at an alarming rate, prompting urgent warnings about America's fiscal trajectory.

The delicate balance between short-term economic support and long-term fiscal health is evident in recent fiscal data:

Green investments represent a potential solution for achieving sustainable recovery while addressing fiscal concerns. These investments create jobs, stimulate economic growth, and address climate challenges simultaneously. The transition toward low-carbon economies presents both fiscal sustainability risks and significant opportunities in new growth areas.

Financial experts emphasize that realizing the vision of a green, productive economy relies on effective resource allocation, addressing systemic barriers, and fostering inclusive growth through targeted policies. Without timely action to implement major changes to fiscal policies, as stressed by the GAO in February 2024, America's long-term fiscal health will face increasingly mounting challenges that could undermine economic stability.

China's GDP growth forecast at 5% amid trade tensions and domestic challenges

China has set its economic growth target for 2025 at approximately 5%, maintaining its ambitious stance despite escalating trade tensions and domestic economic challenges. This target aligns with the country's recent performance, as China achieved 5.3% growth in the first half of 2025, exceeding market expectations.

Major financial institutions have responded positively to China's economic trajectory, with several revising their forecasts upward:

The downward adjustment from ANZ specifically cites U.S. tariffs as a significant factor affecting China's economic outlook. These trade tensions represent a critical external pressure point for the Chinese economy heading into 2025.

China's stimulus measures are expected to provide some support for growth, but the impact of U.S. trade restrictions will likely constrain the overall economic performance. The country faces the dual challenge of navigating these external pressures while addressing domestic concerns such as property market instability and consumer confidence issues. Despite these obstacles, China's official target remains steady at 5%, reflecting the government's determination to maintain strong economic momentum through strategic policy implementation and domestic consumption encouragement.

Monetary policy to maintain 'moderate easing' with 10bp rate cut expected

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a continuation of moderate easing in monetary policy through 2025, with an anticipated 10 basis point rate cut. This measured approach aligns with the broader global central banking landscape as inflation pressures gradually subside across major economies.

The ICP monetary policy direction follows similar trajectories observed in other major central banks, though with more conservative adjustment parameters:

This cautious approach reflects ongoing concerns about inflation resistance, particularly in the U.S. economy, which continues to grow above potential. In contrast, European economic indicators display noticeable signs of decreasing economic buoyancy, potentially warranting more aggressive easing policies.

The Bank of Canada's anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2025 represents another data point in this global shift toward monetary easing. These policy adjustments will likely influence capital flows toward economies implementing more aggressive easing measures. For ICP specifically, maintaining a moderate easing stance with limited rate cuts demonstrates a balanced approach between stimulating growth and ensuring long-term economic stability amid continuing global economic uncertainties.

De-dollarization trend emerging as confidence in US assets wavers

The global economy is witnessing a significant shift away from USD dominance in 2025, driven by declining faith in US financial stability. This de-dollarization trend has accelerated as the Internet Computer's ICP token demonstrates remarkable resilience amid market turbulence. After hitting a low of $2.23 in October 2025, ICP rebounded dramatically with a 56.54% price increase over just seven days, reaching $5.107 by early November.

Financial expert Robert Kiyosaki has explicitly urged investors to pivot toward alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as protective measures against dollar depreciation. This sentiment reflects broader market movements, as evidenced by ICP's price recovery data:

Market indicators show that cryptocurrencies are increasingly functioning as hedge assets against traditional financial system instability. The dramatic recovery from ICP's October crash demonstrates investor confidence in decentralized assets at precisely the moment when US dollar hegemony appears most vulnerable. This strengthening correlation between de-dollarization sentiment and cryptocurrency adoption suggests a fundamental restructuring of global value storage preferences.

FAQ

Is ICP coin a good investment?

ICP coin shows promising potential, with forecasts indicating a price of $24.33 by 2025 and $154.50 by 2030. This suggests significant growth opportunities for investors in the coming years.

Can ICP coin reach $1000?

Based on current projections, ICP is unlikely to reach $1000 soon. Experts predict a maximum price of $109.87 by 2030, which is significantly below $1000.

Is ICP a dead project?

No, ICP is not dead. It's actively developing with ongoing innovations and growing ecosystem support, showing strong potential for future growth.

What is Donald Trump's crypto coin?

Donald Trump's crypto coin is TrumpCoin (TRUMP). It's not officially endorsed by Trump but claims to support his administration and conservative followers.